Latest developments

03

2019

-

12

Review 2019, Outlook 2020-Global Copper Expansion Plan

According to Mymetal statistical analysis, the tension on the supply side of global copper mines since 2019 has come mainly from the strike riots in South America and the conversion of Grasberg projects to underground operations in Indonesia. The 2019 copper mine expansion plan is expected to add a total of 300000 tons of copper concentrate (containing copper). In 2020, the expansion of copper mines in the Mymetal statistics is expected to add 40-500000 tons of copper concentrate capacity (including copper). With the release of new capacity in 2019, the tight supply at the copper end is expected to ease.


Review 2019, Outlook 2020-Global Copper Expansion Plan

According to Mymetal statistical analysis, the tension on the supply side of global copper mines since 2019 has come mainly from the strike riots in South America and the conversion of Grasberg projects to underground operations in Indonesia. 2019The annual copper mine expansion plan is expected to add a total of 300000 tons of copper concentrate (containing copper). In 2020, the expansion of copper mines in the Mymetal statistics is expected to add 40-500000 tons of copper concentrate capacity (including copper). With the release of new capacity in 2019, the tight supply at the copper end is expected to ease.

01 Review 2019

(I) Global Mine Production Declines in 2019

Since 2019, the topic of copper supply-side tension has been one of the most concerned topics in the entire market, the tightening of the supply side led to the first half of the copper price rise, but also for the second half of the copper prices all the way down to provide some support. We count the published mine production of the world's 12 largest mining companies as of the third quarter of 2019 (CODELCO and TeckResources not announced), with a total output of 8.4694 million tons, down 3.65 from 8.79 million tons in the first half of 2018. With CODELCO facing declining copper grades this year and frequent strikes and riots, production in the first half of 2019 fell 12.17 per cent 2018 year-on-year. Therefore, it is not difficult to estimate that the output of the world's 14 largest mining companies in the first three quarters will decrease by more than 3.65, and may reach about 5%.

Figure 1.1 Output of 14 Major Mining Enterprises in the World

Data source: Public information, Mymetal
From Figure 1.1, we can see that one of the important factors for the decline in copper output since 2019 is the decline in output in Freeport McLaren. This is mainly due to the fact that the Grasberg project in Indonesia, one of the largest copper mines in the world, has gradually shifted from open-pit mining to underground mining. The output of copper concentrate in 2019 has dropped sharply. It is estimated that the Grasberg copper output will decrease by 225000 metal tons in 2019. In addition, the decline in production at its Cerro Verde project due to protests in Peru was also one of the reasons for the decline in production at the Freeport copper mine.
The tight supply of global copper ore has led to an overall decline in copper ore processing fees TC/RC, with TC quotes in the overseas copper concentrate in stock market in 2019 falling all the way to as low as $54/tonne, according to Mymetal research, and rising back to $59/tonne since the fourth quarter.
Figure 1.2 TC weekly changes in imported copper concentrate clean ore bulk cargo.

Data source: Mymetal

(II) the production of mine expansion projects in 2019

2019The expansion plans for global mines in 2012 are mainly for the commissioning of the First Quantum Cobre Panama copper project, the resumption of production of the Glencore Katanga copper project and the expansion of the Southern Copper Toquepala copper project, with a planned expansion capacity of 1010,000 tons, 100000 tons and 150000 tons.

Data source: Public information, Mymetal
1, the first quantum: Cobre Panama copper mine put into operation.
First Quantum Mining Company is a Canadian mining company. Its main business is mining exploration and development. Its mines are mainly distributed in Zambia, Mauritania and other places in Africa. Products are cathode copper, copper concentrate, gold and sulfuric acid. The company is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange in Canada. The company's production in 2017, 2018 and the third quarter of 2019 was 57.40 tons, 605900 tons and 475700 tons.

 

Source: First Quantum Annual Report, Mymetal

First Quantum Mining Company, which owns copper mines in production, includes Kansanshi copper mines in Zambia, Sentinel copper mines, Las Cruces copper mines in Spain, and Guelb Moghrein in Mauritania.Copper mines, the Cayeli copper mine in Turkey, and the Pyhasalmi copper mine in Finland, as well as the Cobre Panama copper mine in Panama, which is 2019 in production.

Table 1.2 Summary of the First Quantum Copper Mine

Source: First Quantum Annual Report, Mymetal

Panama CopperAt present, the proven controllable amount of copper ore is 1.8 billion tons, with a grade of 0.51 copper, 0.08 g/t gold and 960 copper metal.Ten thousand tons, gold 147.42 tons.

Table 1.3 Cobre Panama Copper Mine Profile

Data source: First Quantum Bulletin, Mymetal

Panama CopperThe copper mine was officially put into production in the second quarter of 2019 and commercial production began in September 2019. Copper Mines in 2019The second and third quarters of the year have grown well, with the Cobre Panama copper mine producing a total of 87100 metal tons of copper concentrate so far in 2019, including 19400 metal tons of commercial production in September.

Panama CopperThe copper mine is expected to produce 140000 to 175000 tons of copper in 2019. Eighth grinding plant expected in 2019It was put into operation in the fourth quarter. By the end of 2019, the expected annual throughput of the mine will reach at least 72mtpa, which will increase to 85mtpa by 2020, and the annual copper production will reach 300000 mtpa. In 2023, through the upgrading of the mobile fleet and equipment, the annual throughput is expected to reach 100 mtpa, resulting in an annual output of more than 350000 tons of copper.

 

Table 1.4 2018/2019E First Quantum Copper Mine Output.

Source: First Quantum Annual Report, Mymetal

2Glencore: Katanga copper mine project resumed production.

Glencore is a Swiss company, founded in 1974, is the world's commodity trading giant, the third largest copper manufacturer, the largest zinc manufacturer and the largest coal exporter. The company's large copper mines include mines such as Kantanga's Kamoto in Africa and Antamina in Peru.(33.75 per cent), as well as Alumbrera and Lomas Bayas in other South American regions and Mount Isa, Ernest Henry and Cobar in Australia.

Table 1.5 Glencore Copper Mine Summary

Source: Glencore Annual Report, Mymetal the company's year-on-year growth in production in 2018 came from the resumption of production at the Kamoto(Kantanga) project, with copper production of 152400 tonnes for the whole of 2018. According to the report released by Glencore, the output of the Kantanga project in the first three quarters was 5.72, 5.25 and 59400 tons respectively, totaling 169100 tons, and the total output for the whole year is expected to be 227000 tons. Production increased by 55000 tons compared to 2018. The Kamoto copper mine, which Kantanga the project, collapsed in June due to excessive illegal mining by surrounding residents, killing 43 people. The subsequent presence of armed forces by the Government of the Congo has reduced the illegal exploitation of the mines. This is also the project is not expected to reach the previous forecast of 300000 tons of annual capacity. 3. Southern Copper: Toquepala Copper Mine Expansion Peru Southern Copper Company (SCC) was first founded in 1952. The current Southern Copper Corporation was merged in 2005 by Peruvian Southern Peru Copper Corporation and Mexican copper mining company Minera Mexico. The Mexican Group owns 88.9 percent of its shares. Southern Copper's main projects include copper, molybdenum, zinc and silver. The company has mining, smelting and refining facilities in Peru and Mexico, and exploration activities in Argentina and Chile. The company's mines include Toquepala(100 percent),Tia Maria(100 percent) and Los Chancas(100 percent) in Peru, among others.Table 1.6 Summary of Southern Copper Mine

Source: Southern Copper Annual Report, Mymetal According to the latest report released by Southern Copper, the Toquepala copper mine project cost a total of 1.3 billion yuan, including a state-of-the-art concentrator. The project was completed and began production in the fourth quarter of 2018 and reached full production in the second quarter of 2019. The company expects the annual copper output of the Toquepala copper mine project to reach 257000 tons in 2019, up 51% from 2018. (III) 2019 Copper Mine Interference Incident Since 2019, copper mine riots have been frequent, especially in Peru and Chile, the major copper-producing countries in South America, and a nationwide strike in Chile since October, which has had a significant impact on copper production.

(IV) summary According to Mymetal statistical analysis, the tension on the supply side of copper mines in 2019 will mainly come from the conversion of one of the world's largest copper mines, the Indonesian Grasberg project, to underground operations, resulting in a significant drop in production and frequent incidents of mine riots. Most of the mine projects we counted that were scheduled to complete the expansion in 2019 have been put into production, with Glencore's Kantago project having a landslide in July, resulting in lower-than-expected production. The expansion project of the above statistics is expected to add a total copper-containing output of 300000 tons of copper concentrate.

02 Outlook2020

(I)2020Annual mine production expansion plan

1,OZ:Carrapateenacopper mine

Copper is Australia's mining giantOZProjects of Mining CompanyCarrapateenaOriginally expected2019The copper mine project cost a total9.16billion Australian dollars.

AccordingOZThe latest data released by mining companies,CarrapateenaCurrent proven and controllable ore volume in the mining area10The grade of the ore is copper.0.52%, gold0.21g/t, copper metal quantity520Ten thousand tons, gold209.8Tons.

Table 2.1 Brief introduction of Carrapateena copper mine

Data source: OZ Mining Company announcement, Mymetal

According to OZ Mining's latest announcement, the first saleable concentrate originally scheduled to be produced in November 2019 will be postponed to 2019.December of the year. The reason for the modification is that the items provided by the supplier related to mineral processing did not pass the commissioning check correctly. Oz Mining CEO Andrew Cole said construction is complete or near completion, but given the state of underground development, the project will start in 2020. Previously, the company predicted that Carrapateena would produce 2000-4000 tons of copper and 3000-6000 ounces of gold in 2019. The full-year production forecast after the project is officially launched in 2020 will be announced in January 2020, compared with the company's previous full production capacity of 65000 tons in 2020.

2. Tongling Nonferrous: Mirado Copper Mine

In December 2009, Tongling Nonferrous Metals established China Railway Construction Copper Crown Investment Co., Ltd. in a joint venture with Tongling Nonferrous Metals and China Railway Construction, and formally acquired Mirado Copper Mine in 2010. The Mirado copper mine is located in Ecuador, where the Chinese side is responsible for the design, construction and subsequent operation.

At present, 0.66 billion tons of controllable ore have been proved in Mirado mining area, with ore grades of 0.53% copper, 0.17 g/t gold and 1.41 g/t silver.3.49 million tons of copper, 112 tons of gold and 927 tons of silver.

Mirado copper mine is built by China Railway Construction Tongguan Investment Company. Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Company estimates that the total investment in the first phase of the mine is 1.89 billion US dollars. The designed mining and dressing production scale has an annual ore processing capacity of 20 million tons, a daily ore mining and dressing capacity of 60000 tons, and an annual copper concentrate capacity of 35.410,000 tons, 96000 tons of copper metal, 30 years of service.

Table 2.2 Introduction of Mirado Copper Mine

Data source: Tongling Nonferrous Bulletin, Mymetal

According to the latest news, on November 12, the first batch of mining products -19000 tons of copper fine sand, will be transported from the Mirado mine to the port of Guayaquil, and will be exported to China for smelting and deep processing in the next few months. Expected to 2020The Mirado copper mine will be at full capacity, bringing in 100000 tons of new production.

 

3China Nonferrous Mining Group: Chambishi (Chamishi) Copper Mine Southeast Orebody

China Nonferrous Mining Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "China Nonferrous Mining") is a leading copper producer in the world. It focuses on the vertical integrated business of copper mining, mineral processing, hydrometallurgy, pyrometallurgy and sales in Zambia. The controlling shareholder of the company is China Nonferrous Mining Group Co., Ltd (Referred to as "China Nonferrous Metals Group") is a large central (Chinese state-owned) enterprise directly under the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (directly managed). It is engaged in the development of non-ferrous metal mineral resources, construction engineering and related trade and technical services in China and overseas. The group's overseas platform for the development of copper and cobalt resources.

The Company's mines include the Chambishi, Baruba and Mulyashi copper mines in Zambia.

2018In 2002, the main and west mines of China's African mining industry Chambishi mined 375000 tons and 1.129 million tons of ore respectively, producing 31900 tons of copper concentrate, up 7.6 percent from the same period last year.. In the first half of 2019, the cumulative production of concentrates containing copper was 14000 tons, down 6.0 percent from the same period last year.

2018In the year, Chambishi copper smelting produced 164200 tons of crude copper and 56200 tons of anode copper, respectively. Refining 2019 Chambishi Copper Smelter Cumulative Production of Crude Copper 8.47 in the First Half of the YearTen thousand tons, a decrease of 19.2 percent from the same period last year; anode copper 38900 tons, an increase of 296.4 percent from the same period last year.

Table 2.3 Summary of China Nonferrous Mining Chambishi Project

Source: China Nonferrous Mining Annual Report, Mymetal
China Color Africa Mining Co., Ltd. * ("China Color Africa Mining") Chambishi Southeast Ore Body Exploration and Construction Combination Project is one of the key mining projects developed by China Nonferrous Mining Group, with a designed annual ore extraction capacity of 3.3 million tons. As of June 30, 2019, the total completed investment of the project was US $0.786 billion, accounting for 94.7 per cent of the total project investment. At present, the southeast Chambishi ore body has completed 24 production prospecting boreholes (the diameter of the final hole is 47mm), with a footage of 1,560.38 meters, and 60 infrastructure prospecting boreholes (the diameter of the final hole is 75mm), with a footage of 4,939.82 meters.
Table 2.4 Introduction of Chambishi Southeast Mine

 

Source: China Nonferrous Mining Annual Report, Mymetal
(II) Summary
According to Mymetal statistical analysis: as the expansion projects of major mines around the world are gradually put into operation, the tight supply of copper mines may begin to ease gradually in 2020. In addition to the above-mentioned expansion projects, the announced 2020 expansion projects are expected to bring more than 80 tons of new capacity, and with the further release of capacity from the 2019 expansion projects, we believe that the tight supply situation at the copper end will improve from the second half of 2020.
 
Source: My Colored