Caixin News Agency (Shanghai, researcher Ouyang),According to the China Construction Machinery Industry Association Mining Machinery Branch industry statistics, in December 2020, a total of 31530 sets of various types of mining machinery products were sold, up 56.4 percent year-on-year. Domestic market sales of 27319 units, up 58.5. Export sales of 4211 units, up 44.4 percent year-on-year.
According to the China Construction Machinery Industry Association industry statistics January-November 2020 data, 25 host manufacturing enterprises in January-November sales of various types of mining machinery products 296100 units, an increase of 37.4 percent year-on-year. Among them, a total of 32236 sets of various mining machinery products were sold in November, up 66.9 year on year. Domestic market sales of 28833 units, up 68.0. Export sales of 3403 units, up 57.8 percent year-on-year.
It is worth noting that from April to October, Komatsu's total number of hours of operation reached 935, up 1.74 percent year-on-year. Among them, the number of operating hours of Komatsu excavators reached 136.5 in October, a year-on-year increase of 6.3. In November, the number of operating hours of Komatsu excavators was 136.3, a year-on-year increase of 0.6. While the sales volume increased significantly, the number of operating hours and operating rate of excavators also remained high, confirming the authenticity of the growth of construction demand.
Since April, the year-on-year growth rate of excavator sales has exceeded 50%, and the export market has recovered since July. Domestic and foreign double-cycle drive construction machinery plate is continued to be optimistic. Soochow Securities believes that high-speed growth is the same tone. Digger sales are expected to maintain steady growth of 5%-15% in 2021 on a high base, with volatility estimated to remain plus or minus 5-10% over the next few years, and volatility will be much smaller than the previous round.
Dongxing Securities Research Report pointed out that, supported by new demand, stock renewal and export demand, it is believed that excavator sales are expected to reach about 320000 units in 2020, up about 35% year-on-year. The current excavator recovery cycle is expected to continue until 2022, with excavator sales reaching 352000 and 369600 units in 2021 and 2022, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10% and 5%, respectively. Northeast Securities believes that with reference to other standard products such as truck cranes, pumps and trucks, they are basically the world of domestic brands. This will also be the trend of excavators in the future. In recent years, the export sales of excavators have increased rapidly, and the trend has been formed.
Under the trend of higher-than-expected growth, the speed of stock renewal and the demand for domestic substitution of parts and components have become the focus of attention.
Dongxing Securities analyzed the potential space for stock replacement according to the age structure of sample excavators from 2008 to 2013. At present, among the models produced from 2008 to 2013, it is estimated that 106900 units are expected to have more than 12000 hours of startup hours, which also means that the demand for stock renewal in 2020 can support the sales volume of at least 100000 units.
If it is assumed that the average annual number of operating hours of excavators is about 1500, 698700 excavators produced in the next five years from 2008 to 2013 will have more than 12000 hours of operating hours, which means that the potential replacement demand will be about 700000 units in 2021-2025 and the average annual replacement demand will be about 139700 units. According to the calculation, the replacement requirements for 2020-2022 are 106000 units, 161200 units and 197300 units, respectively.
With the domestic construction machinery "dominating" the world, the trend of localization of domestic core components will become more and more prominent advantages. Engine, hydraulic system as the core components, accounting for about 45%. As one of the core targets of the excavator industry chain, China Merchants International predicts that the market share of Hengli hydraulic cylinders will rise from 52% in 2020 to 61% in 2022. It is expected that the pump valves of large excavators and non-standardized hydraulic components in various industries will also drive Hengli's growth.
In addition, according to Hengli's December production schedule, the scheduled output of hydraulic cylinders (for excavators) will reach 79000 units, up 20% from the previous month. CMB International expects this to translate into industry-wide demand for about 40000 excavators in January 2021, which will be significantly higher than the industry's sales of 9900 excavators in January this year.
