As the world's largest coal importer, China's market demand is undoubtedly an important factor in the international coal market.
Global energy statistics released by BP show that global coal production exceeded 8 billion tons in 2018, an increase of 4% year-on-year, of which China's coal production accounted for 46%. More importantly, among the top 10 countries with a production of more than 100 million tons, Indonesia's production has surpassed Australia and jumped to fourth place. According to Australian media reports, the total value of Australia's coal exports in 2018 reached 66 billion Australian dollars, reaching the highest level in history. At the same time, coal replaced iron ore as Australia's largest export revenue commodity.
In April 2018, in order to curb the declining market coal price trend, the relevant Chinese authorities decided to re-use the import coal restriction policy, and the second-class ports in the provinces once again restricted the unloading of imported coal, while allocating quotas to the southern terminal power plants. The China Coal Industry Association has also made it clear that China will reduce its overseas purchases of coal in the second half of 2019 and keep its coal imports at 2018 levels for the whole year.
According to the news, coal suppliers in the world's major coal-producing countries, including the United States, are very nervous-Australia is the first to bear the brunt. You know, resource exports account for up to 70% of Australia's overall export industry. We can imagine the impact of the damage to coal exports on the Australian economy.
In fact, according to authoritative information, in 2018, China imported a total of 0.28 billion tons of coal. In the first half of 2019, China imported 0.15 billion tons of coal, up 5.8 percent year-on-year. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, from January to December 2019, the country imported nearly 0.3 billion tons of coal, an increase of 6.3 percent over the same period last year.
It should be pointed out that coal is China's main energy, but also a strategic resource. Although my country's total coal resources in my country are in the forefront, the per capita ranking is low. At the same time, the reserve-to-production ratio is only 33 years, which is far lower than the world average of 112 years of exploitable years. Therefore, the country must be cautious about the export of coal. attitude.
This paper collects the reports and views of some overseas mining media on the impact of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic on China's imported coal. From this, we can see the dependence of coal suppliers in the world's major coal-producing countries on China's coal market, and provide some reference for relevant departments to formulate corresponding policies and countermeasures.
The impact of imports is more than logistics
On February 6, Reuters published a report entitled "Virus-hit China may need more imports of coal. The tricky part - shipping it" (Virus-hit China may need more). The author Clyde Russell said that in the face of the ongoing novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, China's domestic coal mines are working hard to increase production. At the same time, China's demand for imported coal is likely to increase in the coming weeks due to the impact of delayed construction after the Spring Festival.
But some countries have overreacted. Major coal exporters such as Indonesia, Australia and the United States face logistical problems-the outbreak has affected supply chains, making it harder for shipping companies to find ships bound for China. Businesses in countries that trade heavily with the world's largest consumer of goods are affected.
The Australian government's decision to impose a 14-day quarantine on ships from China after February 1 reflects the challenges faced by exporting coal to China.
Because the sailing time between China and Australia's east and west coasts is usually less than 14 days, this means that these ships will face delays when they arrive in Australian ports. Long queues of ships outside Australian coal ports are already on the rise. Argus Media reported on February 4 that the number of ships waiting outside the port of Newcastle, the world's largest coal export port, has reached the highest level in 18 months, reaching 20.
Some other factors, such as weather, port and rail maintenance, may lead to longer waiting times for ships, but the overall trend is clear: cargo arrangements in and out of China are becoming more complex.
At current freight prices, shipping companies will lose money on each voyage, and they also face higher costs. The reason is that as part of a change in global shipping rules-the International Maritime Organization (International Maritime Organization) last month began to mandate the use of cleaner fuels.
Of course, Asian seaborne coal prices have not yet risen significantly due to domestic coal demand in China. The price of 6000 kilocalories of coal per kilogram in Newcastle on the Tyne River in northern England climbed to US $69.35 per ton on Thursday (February 6), up from the recent low of US $66.30 on February 3, but still below the year-to-date high of US $72 on January 13, according to broker Turit Preppen. Indonesia's low-quality coal prices of 4200 kcal/kg are also selling well. The Argus index rose to a six-month high of $35.48 a tonne for the week ended Jan. 31.
(Next to 2nd Edition)
Website Editor: Gong Li
