In September 2021, Guinean Special Forces Commander Colonel Mamady Dunbuya staged a military coup, declaringIts troops havetook power in the country and seized President Alpha Conte. At the same time, the Guinean government was formally dissolved, the constitution was repealed, and the land and air borders were closed. This is the first time in 13 years that Guinea has again undergone a regime change in the form of a coup d'état. The coup leader, Dunbuya, was the first to appease investors from various countries, promising to abide by existing bilateral and multilateral agreements, lift curfews in mining areas and ensure the continued operation of mining enterprises. It is hoped that foreign-funded enterprises will not be affected by the changes in the situation in Guinea and maintain normal production and operation.

CommentsGuinea is the world's largest bauxite resource country, with proven reserves of more than 7.4 billion tons, and most of them are high-grade, easy to exploit high-quality resources. In addition, Guinea has the world's largest undeveloped high-grade iron ore. The arrival of Chinese investors has helped Guinea's bauxite development take off, with bauxite production soaring from 18 million tons in 2015 to 82 million tons in 2020, making it the world's second largest bauxite producer, with 52.67 million tons of bauxite exported to China in 2020. The risk of regime subversion is one of the most serious risks in international mining investment. Guinea, as a new hot spot for mining investment on the African continent, political turmoil has affected the nerves of the international mining industry. After the coup, aluminum prices were once pushed to a 10-year high. Although the current political situation is stable, it can really reassure investors. In addition to the stable status quo, what is more important is stable expectations.

President of the Democratic Republic of the CongoTshisekediMinister of Mines Nsamba and Chairman of the National Mining Corporation Yuma and others have repeatedly criticized fraud and injustice in the mining agreements signed between the former government and multinational companies since April, accusing international giants of making financial arrangements to make Congo (DRC) unable to receive dividends and suffering a lot of losses in national revenue. Non-governmental organizations such as the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative and international media have also promoted the DRC (DRC) government through research reports and in-depth reports. The government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) subsequently initiated a re-examination and financial audit of some large mining project contracts.President TshisekediIn November, measures were proposed to rectify the mining industry, suspend the issuance of mineral rights permits, check the social responsibility of mining enterprises, and supervise the implementation of the government's acquisition of shares in mining companies.

Comments:The cobalt resources of Congo (DRC) occupy an absolute dominant position in the world, and will develop into one of the world's leading copper producers in the next few years. Therefore, the copper and cobalt resources of Congo (DRC) have become the focus of attention of investors and even governments. Relying on its dominant position in resource endowments, Congo (DRC) has been gradually tightening domestic mining policies since the introduction of the new Mining Law in 2018, introducing policies including raising tax rates, banning the export of copper concentrates, increasing government shares, and increasing social contributions. The current round of measures to review mining contracts as the main means has had a great impact on the investors under review, and political risks are more prominent in the mining investment risks of Congo (DRC).

Zambia's state-owned United Copper Investment Corporation (ZCCM) completed its acquisition of a stake in Mopani Copper in January, and Glencore sold a majority stake in Mopani to the Zambian government for $1, with the Zambian government assuming an additional $1.5 billion in debt. The specific way is for the Zambian government to sign a $1.5 billion underwriting agreement with Glencore to pay for 10 per cent of copper production over the next 10 to 17 years, depending on international copper prices. The Zambian government had previously clashed with Glencore over the operation of the Mopani Copper Company, and in April 2020, Glencore could shut down the maintenance of Mopani and demobilized its employees on the grounds of the new crown epidemic, but the government refused and threatened to revoke Mopani's mining license, in addition to the government temporarily detaining Mopani's mine manager at the airport until he left the country. Glencore had appealed the decision of the Zambian Ministry of Mines to reject its proposed suspension of operations.

Comments:Zambia is Africa's second largest copper producer, and Mopani Mining is a joint venture between Glencore, First Quantum and Zambia's State-owned United Copper Investment Company, which controls two mega copper mines, Mufulira and Nkana, as well as assets such as related concentrators and smelters. In November 2020, Zambia became the first African country to default on its sovereign debt during the epidemic, and the government led by then-President Lungu wanted to strengthen state control over mining to ease the fiscal crisis, and the nationalization of Mopani was just part of a series of operations. Prior to this, the Zambian government was also involved in a long-term dispute with mining giant Vedanta, and international investors were full of doubts about Zambia's mining investment environment. Opposition leader Hichilema won the election in August. Hichilema changed his attitude towards foreign mining investment after taking office. He said that the government will consult with stakeholders to review the mining tax policy framework to ensure that mining investment is predictable and sustainable. It remains to be seen whether these moves will ease tensions between the government and international mining giants.

Gabriel Boric, a 35-year-old candidate for dignity, a coalition of left-wing parties in Chile, won the December presidential election, becoming the youngest president in Chile's history. The mining-related policies announced by Boric during the election campaign mainly include five major aspects: attaching importance to climate change and clean energy development, calling for the construction of an integrated royalty system, promoting the localization of the industrial chain, paying attention to environmental protection, and strengthening infrastructure construction.

Chile's lower house of parliament passed a draft resolution in March.Bill of Rights,The bill proposes an increase in annual production over1.2tons of copper,5Ten thousand tons of lithium enterprise levy.3%of royalties, and the implementation of a step tax rate based on changes in the price of minerals.In May, the House of Commons again passed a revised royalty bill to impose a floating tax on copper, with miners paying a marginal tax rate of up to 75 per cent when copper prices are above $4 per pound. The bill was strongly opposed by the Chilean Mining Association and mining companies. Since the bill was proposed, there have been many rounds of amendments and it is still in the discussion stage.

Comments:Chile is the world's largest copper resource and producer, as well as the world's largest lithium resource and second largest producer. The development of copper and lithium resources is the pillar of Chile's national economy. Chile's new policy on copper and lithium will not only stir up the domestic investment environment, but also transmit to neighboring countries and even the international community. Both President Boric's campaign promise and the royalty bill, which is under intense discussion, reflect the current rise of resource nationalism in the world. The two most important manifestations of this sentiment in Latin America are tax increases and industrial chain localization, only by adapting and laying out early can we take the lead in the new round of competition.

Peru's newly elected President Pedro Castillo officially took office in July. Castillo said during the election campaign that he would push for the cancellation of the tax stabilization agreement reached with large mining companies, review the stabilization agreement for 27 large mining projects, introduce a new policy to enable Peru to retain 70% of mining profits, and even nationalize some resources. After taking office as president, although he did not take the radical measures mentioned in the campaign, he still proposed policies such as the natural gas nationalization bill, the revision of royalties, corporate income tax and the "special tax" to be used when metal prices soar. Citing the IMF's research conclusion, it plans to increase the mining tax rate by 4%.

9th largest copper mine in the world operated by MMGThe BambasAfter 27 days of community road blockade, the mine stopped production again in December. Since 2016, the mine has been suspended for nearly 400 days due to community protests and blockades. The Cerro Lindo zinc mine, operated by Nexa Resources, also suspended production in the same week due to a similar road blockade.

Comments:The new president of Peru comes from the grassroots of society and is known as the spokesperson of the middle and lower classes of the left. He won the election by relying on his simple political image in the election and his campaign promises to benefit the people at the bottom. The new government's mining policy is being formulated, and the specific terms are not yet known, but it is clear that the government has chosen the former in the balance of increasing fiscal revenue and enhancing the competitiveness of attracting mining investment. The new Peruvian government has failed to alleviate the persistent problems of community conflicts in mining activities. Instead, it has not played its due active role in the current round of conflicts.Secret China Chamber of CommerceQuestion the lack of decision-making.

KyrgyzstanNew President ZapalovSigned in Januaryorder, foreign-funded enterprises are prohibited from mining state-level mineral resources, state-level mines will be entirelyWholly-ownedmining by state-owned enterprises. In July, furtherWhen developing mineral resources that do not belong to the national level, the proportion of state holding will be stipulated. In November, the Cabinet issued a temporary moratorium on the issuance of new permits for geological survey, exploration and development related to gold, silver and copper mines. In addition, the government has also been in a dispute with the Centerra Gold Company of Canada over the world's largest gold-producing mine-Kumtor for several years. In March, it filed a claim of US $0.1 billion against the Centerra Gold Company. In May, the parliament passed a law allowing the country to temporarily take over the mining company if the mining company's activities pose a threat to human life or the environment. Subsequently, the court cited environmental issues, A $3.1 billion fine was imposed on the Centerra Gold Company and the forced takeover of the Kumtor mine 10 days later.

Comments:ZapalovHe was jailed for attempting a violent power grab during riots calling for the nationalisation of the Kumtor gold mine in 2012. In 2020, Zaparov returned to the public eye as prime minister and acting president, stressing that nationalization is no longer his goal and that mining companies should serve the interests of the people and will try to promote the redistribution of benefits. In January this year, Kyrgyzstan's political system changed from a parliamentary to a presidential system. Zaparov further expanded his powers and introduced a series of policies targeting foreign mining investors. Although the substantive measures taken by the government on foreign mining enterprises are still limited to the Kumtor mine, the trend of these policies is bound to affect the confidence and enthusiasm of foreign businessmen in mining investment in Kyrgyzstan.

In the past two years, Uzbekistan has issued a series of testimonies to attract mining investment. Among them, in April this year, Uzbekistan issued a presidential decree on further strengthening the geological industry to attract investment, accelerating the transformation of mining enterprises and expanding mineral resource bases, which improved the mining management policy and improved the mining management system. In June, the President passed the "Supplementary Measures for the Development of Mining and Metallurgical Industries and Related Industries". The document stipulates that it is necessary to create a technology cluster of high value-added copper products and finished products of related industries, and to create a multi-level value chain "from raw materials to finished products. In August, the president said he planned to cut taxes on copper and gold mining from 10 percent to 7 percent and tungsten from 10 percent to 2.7 percent.

Comments: Uzbekistan, like several other Central Asian countries, went through a long process of long-term rule by its first president and difficult integration into the international market after the collapse of the Soviet Union. After the new President Mirziyoyev came to power in 2016, he actively promoted economic reforms, implemented an economic policy of opening to the outside world, reduced administrative intervention, sold some shares in state-owned companies, and actively promoted the process of economic liberalization and privatization. The opening up of the mining sector is an important part of President Mirziyoyev's reform. From the perspective of specific policies and measures, Uzbekistan can be regarded as a "clear stream" in the rising momentum of global resource nationalism ".

The dispute between the Mongolian government and Rio Tinto over the expansion plan of the Oyu Tolgoi mine came to a temporary end in December when Rio Tinto agreed to forgive the Mongolian government's $2.3 billion debt owed on the expansion project.Oyun, Prime Minister of Mongolia-Erdeni saidThis concession by Rio Tinto will accelerate Mongolia's profitable time on the mine. The Mongolian government and Rio Tinto have been in a dispute over the overspending of the expansion of Oyu Tolgoi, Asia's largest copper and gold mine.Ou YuTaurecai CompanyToInternational Court of ArbitrationAgainst the Government of Mongoliaof litigationThe Government of Mongolia then countersued. The Mongolian government has repeatedly stressed that to ensure that the Oyu Tolgoi project should be implemented in a mutually beneficial manner in the best interests of the Mongolian people, Rio Tinto should be responsible for the delay in the development of the Oyu Tolgoi underground mine and should immediately terminate the controversial underground mine development and financing plan, and has also threatened to cancel the agreement signed by the two sides.

Comments:Mongolian government holds Oyu Tolgoi project34%ownership of the mineThe expansion project has been plagued by delays and cost overruns, which Rio Tinto blames on complex geological conditions, while Mongolia's investigation reports that it is mainly caused by poor management of the operating company. According to the original assumption, the development of the Oyu Tolgoi project will bring Mongolia's economic take-off, but in fact the Mongolian government has to continue to fund its share of the underground expansion project through Rio Tinto loans. According to the financing agreement previously signed by both parties, the Mongolian government cannot receive any dividends from the project until the debt is repaid.ObviouslyYesMongoliaBecauseThe strong negotiating position of the host country temporarily won the victory of this dispute. However, in the long run, this series of disputes also revealed the instability of Mongolia's mining investment environment..In addition, if the international giants can really“mutual benefit and win-win”It is believed that this world-class copper mine development will be another situation.

The Indonesian government in March to draft a "beginning to the end of the new energy battery development plan", to set up a state-owned holding company, the construction of nickel ore supply, processing nickel sulfate and cobalt sulfate and battery production in one of the complete new energy battery industry chain, making Indonesia a global battery manufacturing center. In the same month, the government issued a one-year permit for the export of seven raw ores, including copper, iron and manganese, excluding nickel ore, and said that although the export permit for raw ores was relaxed, the new rules would not exempt mining companies from continuing to build smelters in Indonesia.

Comments:IndonesiaIt is the world's largest nickel.Mineral Resources Countries andProducing countries, thanks to their resource endowment advantages, have taken the lead in the new energy battery industry.2014YearGovernment onBan the export of nickel ore, to the beginning of nickel wet process projects in recent years, to now plan to set up a complete new energy battery industry chain, and layout of the new energy automobile industry,Indonesia's plan for transforming resource advantages into industrial and economic advantages is clear and firm. IndonesiaIs trying to attract capital from around the world, and the introduction of the world's most advanced nickel cobalt smeltingand processingtechnology,The major investment opportunities for Indonesia in the future will be mining capacity and technical cooperation in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative.

Canada published the first edition in March.List of key minerals, includingUranium, chromium, copper, nickel, cobalt, lithium, rare earth, graphite31 kinds of minerals. In the same month, Canada issued the Guidelines for the National Security Review of Investments, which clearly states that investments in foreign state-owned enterprises and private investments with close ties to foreign governments, regardless of value, should be subject to strict scrutiny, and explicitly mentions that national security reviews will be initiated for acquisitions involving control of key minerals. In April, Canada announced its fiscal 2021 budget, which plans to invest C $46.4 million over the next three years to encourage the production and development of key minerals needed for batteries.9Month,Western Australia releases mineral and oil resource development strategy. In the same month, the Australian government announced that it would provide a loan of A $2 billion for key mineral projects in the country to fill the current financing gap in key mineral areas and ensure that the project can be successfully launched. 11In January, the United States announced a new edition.Draft list of 50 critical minerals.

Comments:Canada and Australia are one of the most important destinations for global mining investment, and they are also the countries with the best global mining investment environment from a western perspective for a long time. In recent years, the United States, the European Union, Australia, Canada and other developed countries have issued or updated the list of key minerals, and the focus has been switched from the initial security of raw material supply to the security of the supply chain and industrial chain. At the same time, it is also based on the list of key minerals to strengthen the review of foreign enterprises' investment in domestic key minerals, which has obvious significance. Looking closely at these lists, investors will find that almost all the minerals available for investment in the country have been included, which means that the vast majority of investments will face security reviews. For investors from non-allied countries, barriers to mining investment in these developed countries are rising.

*This article only represents the author's personal views and does not constitute platform opinions or investment advice.

Source: Mining Industry